A brief analysis of the German medical cannabis market
Having absolutely legally obtained the necessary permits for this, it is already possible to legally grow socially safe varieties of technical hemp of a therapeutic orientation, the flowers and leaves of which have a much greater therapeutic effect than those preparations that, at best, are made based on the properties of the plant and are smuggled into the territory of Ukraine.
Taking into account the growing activity of lobbyists advocating for amendments to the current legislation aimed at regulating the possibility of using medical cannabis in our country, the editors of the specialized electronic publication of Ukrainian cannabis growers turned to the specialists of the information and analytical platform Hemp Consulting for advice on the situation in the market for use. therapeutic properties of plants in Europe. We provide the text of the answer of Hemp Consulting experts without any cuts or changes.
Let's start from the information presented on the pages of the specialized electronic edition of Ukrainian cannabis growers, in particular, "Analysis of the medical hemp market in Europe" provided by our American colleagues. According to previously published materials, up to 73% of the European medical cannabis market is currently concentrated in Germany. Let us take the liberty to use one more conclusion, which has already sounded on the pages of the specialized electronic edition of Ukrainian cannabis growers in relation to the Dutch market - “up to 2017 the number of patients using the therapeutic properties of cannabis grew exponentially, but in 2018 the market was“ saturated ”and the growth in the number of recipes did not only did not slow down and practically stopped, but decreased ”. Based on the above two postulates, it makes sense to analyze the largest European market for medical cannabis not only from the point of view of the processes taking place there, but also to identify trends that are inherent in all countries in which the medical cannabis market is “launched” and operates.
The analysis can also be based on official data provided by the Federal Institute of Medicines and Medical Devices (Bundesinstitut für Arzneimittel und Medizinprodukte, BfArM) of Germany, which at the end of July published data on the import of medical cannabis into the country for the first half of 2020. Summarizing the BfArM data for 2017 - 2020. into a single table, we get very interesting materials from the point of view of analysis.
Number of medical hemp flowers imported to Germany
As can be seen from the table, in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, the import supplies of leaves and inflorescences of medical cannabis to Germany were 16% higher, and in the second quarter they increased by another 32%. However, even the growth for the second quarter in a row in the volume of imported "green mass" of hemp plant, which has significant therapeutic potential, could not compensate for the decline in the 4th quarter, which amounted to about 43%. Why this is a separate question that requires a detailed description, but there is a fact - the German market, even in spite of the existence of an appropriate regulatory framework and the mechanism of significant cost reduction due to insurance medicine, does not grow exponentially.
A brief historical excursion characterizing certain trends in the German medical cannabis market
After the regulatory legal provision of the legal possibility of using psychoactive cannabis for medical purposes, the import of plant flowers with significant therapeutic potential into Germany showed both rapid growth and a rather sharp decline (Q1 and Q3 2018; Q4 2019). Despite the fact that the total volume of imports of medical hemp flowers to Germany is gradually increasing from year to year - 2017 (1201 kg); 2018 (3129 kg); 2019 (6729 kg), the growth dynamics is clearly decreasing (the supply volumes increased 2.6 times from 2017 to 2018; 2.1 times from 2018 to 2019). The diminishing dynamics of market growth is especially clearly visible when comparing the data obtained for the first half of the year. In particular, the market size in the 1st half of 2017 increased by 532% compared to the same period in 2018; 2018 compared to the first half of 2019 - plus 155%, and the indicators of the first half of 2020 increased compared to the same period in 2019 by only 63%. Based on the foregoing, we can say that despite the apparent growth in the volume of the medical cannabis market, its gradual saturation is observed and judging by similar information from other European countries (taking into account the inertia associated with a large number of German population), the market should stabilize at the end 2020 - first half of 2021.
Dynamics of import of medical hemp flowers to Germany
According to German sources, the estimated number of registered patients in Germany using the therapeutic properties of cannabis flowers in 2019 reached 60 thousand patients. Despite the fact that the number of patients will certainly increase and based on the previously stated assumption that the market will peak in the first half of 2021, the number of Deutschland patients needing medical hemp flowers is unlikely to exceed 200-250 thousand people ( the data correlate with information on the potential of the medical cannabis market in Poland, France, declared by the state structures of the above countries, as well as the results of a study conducted by Hemp Consulting specialists, in relation to the Ukrainian market).
Perspectives
In the medium term, the market for the green mass of the hemp plant, which has significant therapeutic properties, will be influenced by the German production of medical hemp flowers. It is expected that, starting from the fourth quarter of 2020, German manufacturers will finally enter the market, which over the next 4 years will try to replace the import supplies of medical hemp flowers, “recapturing” about 2.5 tons of hemp raw materials per year on the market. Considering the supply of leaves and inflorescences of therapeutic hemp from Uruguay, it can be assumed that German producers (and not only) of hemp raw materials with significant therapeutic properties will turn their attention not only to varieties of medical hemp.
Commentary of experts of the Association "Ukrainian technical hemp"
In order to eradicate its dependence on suppliers from Canada and the Netherlands, BfArM has now authorized the import of flowers from Portugal, Spain and Denmark. In total, there are products of more than 30 companies from the above-mentioned countries on the market that specialize in the legal cultivation of medical hemp. The data on the number of patients who need medical cannabis in Germany, Poland, France do not exceed 300 thousand. A question arises for our colleagues, who are advocating for amendments to the current legislation and appealing the figure of 2-2.5 million for patients in need of cannabis therapy in our country - where are these figures from and how are they comparable with the data presented by the state structures of the above countries (taking into account that that the population of France and Germany is clearly larger, and it is definitely richer than our compatriots).
Why do economically developed countries create conditions for national producers to make money on the medical cannabis market, and taking into account the Swiss-Uruguayan deal, the therapeutic varieties of technical hemp developed and already registered in Ukraine clearly fall into the global trend of using the hemp plant for treatment or recovery. How is it that a bunch of structures advocating for the development of the industry do not raise the question of the advisability of providing only departmental orders to the industry, which is rapidly developing in all economically developed countries of the world, the already developed sector of the hemp industry in our country, which has a huge export potential, which has clear trends to the formation and development on the territory of Ukraine, using the leaves and inflorescences of technical hemp of therapeutic orientation, which have tremendous therapeutic properties for industrial purposes (food, cosmetic preparations, food / feed / biologically active additives, etc.).
Even more interesting for understanding is the fact that lawyers who are actively "fighting" for patients who illegally grow psychoactive varieties of marijuana to treat their own ailments do not want to explain to people in need of this kind of treatment how it is absolutely legal to obtain the necessary permits for this it is already legal to grow socially safe varieties of technical hemp of therapeutic orientation, the flowers and leaves of which have a much greater therapeutic effect than those preparations that, at best, are made based on the properties of the plant and are smuggled into the territory of Ukraine. It is the above questions that will be substantively considered during the training of a group of students of the "Hemp University", the training of which will take place from 15 to 30 September 2020 .