The period of rapid growth of the medical cannabis market is on average 2 to 4 years

After several years of rapid growth, the market reaches saturation and subsequently not only remains at its maximum sales values, but also partially "sinks".

On the pages of the specialized electronic publication of Ukrainian cannabis growers, editorial staff try to avoid materials related to the recreational use of cannabis. However, to the question of the editors what exactly is the period of exponential growth of the medical cannabis market addressed to the specialists of the information and analytical platform Hemp Consulting, materials on the recreational cannabis market in two administrative-territorial units of the United States were provided with a comment that such trends are also characteristic of the issues of interest to us. That is why we provide our readers with certain conclusions of our American colleagues regarding the recreational markets of the states of Washington and Colorado.

Recreational cannabis companies in Washington and Colorado are slowing down new brands and products, a clear sign of market maturity in the aforementioned United States, which in 2014 provided the legal framework for the legal use of psychoactive cannabis. 

In particular, a seven-year survey of these brands and hemp products in the above-mentioned US administrative divisions shows that the number of brands and products has not only stabilized, but also partially decreased in Washington state over the past three years. Even though the number of brands sold by retailers in Colorado is growing marginally, the growth rate has slowed significantly compared to previous years.

Colorado has seen the number of individual products available throughout the year stabilize at 33,000 since 2018, while the number of brands and products in Washington State began to decline in 2016 after two years of explosive growth.

The number of items per brand has dropped in both states, signaling a tightening market. In the last quarter of 2020, each of the states “selected” 37 products per brand. Washington State peaked in 2016 with 56 products per brand, and Colorado with 41 products last year alone.

Similar trends are noted in Nevada, Oregon, and other states that have regulated the legal use of psychoactive cannabis.

Commentary of experts of the Association "Ukrainian technical hemp"

In the studies of the medical hemp markets of economically developed countries of the world, the specialists of the information and analytical platform Hemp Consulting can trace certain trends indicating that the market for the legal use of therapeutically active elements of the plant reaches its maximum values ​​2-4 years after the regulation of the use of the plant for medical purposes. The market for the recreational use of the hemp plant demonstrates similar indicators, in particular, the peak of sales in Washington state was reached in 3 years, and in Colorado in 4 years after the "launch" of legal mechanisms for the sale of such products. After several years of rapid growth, the market reaches saturation and subsequently not only remains at its maximum sales values, but also partially "sinks".

The specifics of the development of the activities of Ukrainian companies on the national market for medical cannabis is the period when their products enter an “empty” niche with already formed rush demand or with a huge financial resource for the highly competitive sector of modern hemp growing, which is already dominated by foreign producers. The rhetorical question is whether national companies can compete in the medical cannabis market with foreign ones, realizing from the outset that our fellow competitors from abroad have significantly greater financial capabilities than national companies, and the currently lobbied regulatory framework is not provides opportunities for Ukrainian companies to enter the medical cannabis market during the first 5-10 years after its “launch” (at least we keep in mind the experience of German companies, which since 2017 have not been artificially released on their own market by foreign suppliers of medical cannabis already present on it).

The highlight of the data presented by the Americans is a statistical analysis of recreational goods that include edibles, drinks, capsules, concentrates, flowers, tinctures, and vapes. A rhetorical question for our readers - which of the above products may appear on the shelves of nationally produced stores as early as next year, if, without changing certain provisions of the law on the use of hemp for industrial purposes, the possibility of working with products from leaves and flowers of technical hemp of a therapeutic orientation with a huge therapeutic potential and already on an industrial scale grown on the territory of Ukraine. For example, the “Mriya” variety registered in the Unified Register of Plant Varieties suitable for growing in Ukraine, in which the amount of controlled tetrahydrocannabinol does not reach values ​​of 0.05%, contains only drug-free cannabidiol of about 3%. This is despite the fact that the plant contains more than 60 other therapeutically active elements with tremendous healing properties.